A political storm is brewing in Malaysia as the country faces a mounting number of Cabinet vacancies. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim finds himself in a delicate situation, with analysts predicting an inevitable reshuffle. But here's where it gets controversial: is this a genuine crisis, or a strategic move to maintain stability?
The Cabinet Conundrum
The likelihood of a Cabinet reshuffle has increased in recent weeks, with at least four confirmed vacancies due to expiring senatorial terms and resignations. Analysts believe Anwar will delay this move until December, after the crucial Sabah state election on November 29.
Anwar wants to focus on the elections and avoid any distractions. He aims to address the Cabinet's public image and effectiveness by filling these vacancies promptly. However, he has remained tight-lipped about the reshuffle, even jokingly inviting the media to suggest new ministers.
A Balancing Act
Political analysts view the upcoming reshuffle as a delicate political balancing act for Anwar, rather than a threat to the government's stability. They believe the changes will be strategic, focusing on managing expectations and coalition dynamics.
The senatorial term of Investment, Trade, and Industry Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz ends in December, and Ewon Benedick resigned as the Entrepreneur and Cooperatives Development Minister, citing a disregard for Sabah's constitutional rights. Additionally, two ministers from Anwar's own party resigned after losing internal leadership polls in May.
The Sabah Election Focus
Anwar's immediate priority is the upcoming Sabah state election, which will see political parties battling it out at the federal level. This election is the first in a series of significant state polls leading up to the 16th General Election in 2028.
Analysts believe the Sabah election will test the unity government partners' ability to collaborate, even though their alliance is not guaranteed for the next general election. They predict Anwar will assess the resulting structure of the state government before making any significant Cabinet changes.
Multi-Cornered Battles
The Sabah election is expected to be a multi-cornered fight involving various political pacts and parties, including Anwar's Pakatan Harapan, the Barisan Nasional coalition, and the Perikatan Nasional pact. The Gabungan Rakyat Sabah pact, which currently controls the state government, is also part of Anwar's federal government.
The Sabah State Legislative Assembly has 79 seats, with 73 contested and six appointed by the governor. Analysts suggest that a reshuffle after the election will avoid any uncertainty and may include new appointments and portfolio exchanges, potentially including ministers from Sabah.
Complexities and Coalitions
The situation is further complicated by the withdrawal of UPKO, a Sabah-based party, from Pakatan Harapan just before the state polls. UPKO's departure was due to disputes over Sabah's constitutional rights and revenue entitlements.
The government's decision not to appeal a High Court ruling on Sabah's 40% entitlement to federal revenue could be a strategic move by Anwar to gain political leverage. There is even speculation that a deputy prime minister from Sabah could be appointed soon, recognizing Malaysia's federal complexity.
Political Pressure and Party Dynamics
Anwar must also consider political pressure from coalition partners, particularly UMNO, which has been actively lobbying to reclaim the ministerial portfolio currently held by Tengku Zafrul. Analysts predict Anwar will adhere to the quota of posts given to supporting parties, including UMNO's allocation of seven Cabinet posts.
The 2023 Reshuffle and Beyond
Anwar last conducted a Cabinet reshuffle in December 2023, expanding the Cabinet from 28 to 31 full ministers. Analysts believe he will retain most ministers and focus on stability. However, there is a possibility he could pick technocrats to fill the posts vacated by the two PKR ministers in May.
Speculation and Political Hurdles
Rising expectations of an upcoming Cabinet shake-up have fueled speculation over potential new appointees. Names like PKR deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar and former Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin have been mentioned, but both face significant political hurdles.
Nurul Izzah, although capable, may be avoided by Anwar to prevent nepotism perceptions. Khairy, expelled from UMNO in 2023, faces internal resistance within the party.
The Final Reshuffle?
This reshuffle is widely considered the last before the next national polls, putting pressure on Anwar to assemble a strong team. Some analysts suggest promoting deputy ministers to full ministers, including R Ramanan from PKR and Ahmad Maslan and Noraini Ahmad from UMNO.
Former DAP parliamentarian Charles Santiago emphasizes the need for a competent team, stating, "We want to win, not because the opposition is weak, but because we are strong and competent."
The stage is set for a political showdown in Malaysia, and the outcome of this reshuffle could shape the country's future.
